Kofas: Bulgaria is among the EU countries with the greatest dependence of the transport sector on international transport

Bulgaria is among the EU countries with the greatest dependence of the transport sector on international transport, which for our country reaches nearly 80 percent, compared to an average of about 40 percent for the EU. With this, we are part of the trend of strong dependence of the industry on the foreign market, which is generally observed in the countries of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) - in Lithuania, for example, this share is over 90 percent. This was stated by Grzegorz Silewicz, Chief Economist of the global credit insurance company "Kofas" for CEE in a webinar dedicated to challenges in the "Transport" and "Logistics" sector in Central and Eastern Europe, BTA reported.

This dependence is of great importance for the development of the sector given the global macroeconomic trends observed this year, such as the slowdown in economic growth and the contraction of trade in goods, stubborn inflation, volatile commodity and energy prices, the slow recovery of retail sales, as well as high interest rates imposed by central banks. As a positive factor, however, the easing of problems in the supply chains can be singled out, Silevich said.

In 2022, a significant growth was observed in the turnover of companies from the sector, but subsequently a decline was noted, and the increase reported in the second quarter of the current year is still not enough to reach last year's levels. Despite the start of recovery in some countries such as Lithuania, Romania and Hungary, the positive trend seems to have been interrupted, the expert commented.

The difficult environment for the transport industry is also reflected in the increase in bankruptcy filings of companies in the sector, although in this respect Bulgaria stands out as an exception to the general trend in the region, according to data for the second quarter of the year presented by Silevich.

Pressure on transport and logistics companies is also exerted by the continuing severe labor shortage in the sector, which leads to an increase in remuneration and, accordingly, in their financial costs.

At the same time, it should be noted that the situation with business bankruptcies in the region is generally returning to normal. In some countries, such as Poland, the figures are even higher than in pre-pandemic 2019, after the pandemic period when measures to support companies were triggered in a number of countries. The transport industry is strongly linked to all other sectors; therefore, the general trend is important, added the expert.