Iliya Lingorski: Analyzes show that the peak of inflation is expected in the spring

On January 4, the latest BDB program will be announced, which will support companies - especially micro, small and medium-sized companies, which are mainly in the field of tourism. This is undoubtedly a sector directly affected by the pandemic. There is already initial information on the BDB website - the chief economist of the Bulgarian Development Bank Iliya Lingorski told BNR.

"This liquidity assistance program will focus on two main areas. One will be for the restaurant industry, it will be open to funding for restaurateurs, including start-ups. It is important to emphasize that the program supports small and medium-sized enterprises, micro and start-ups in the sector, both for working capital and funds needed to pay real wages and expenses, and for investments to develop their business." A memorandum of cooperation between BDB and the Ministry of Tourism will also be signed.

 "2021 was a year of rapid growth after the initial shock of the Covid-19 pandemic. We still don't have the final data for last year, but preliminary expectations are for a higher than originally expected recovery of our gross product and economy of about 4% for the year. "

What will be the main drivers of growth in 2022?

"In the first year of its launch, it is expected to have a strong positive impact on investment recovery.

Permanently recovering and accelerating consumption, on the one hand, is one of the engines and investments, on the other. As they carry more weight as a contribution to recovery. "

Inflation rate

"The rise in the price of raw materials and energy, and more specifically in Europe, is a significant factor and component that has a very rapid spread effect on the prices of all goods and services.

What is specific about this inflation process is that, first, in our economy it is the result of external factors. Inflationary pressure this time came, first of all, not so much from the consumption side, but was caused mainly by the supply side. As a result of the pandemic, the rhythm of supply and supply chains was disrupted.

The expectations and forecast of the Ministry of Finance for 2022 are that inflation will be higher. The consensus is for a peak in inflation in the spring months. "

Development banks

"Development banks, like BDB, have a key function to be countercyclical, especially in times of crisis, to ensure continuity of access to business finance, especially for small and medium-sized enterprises.

It was with such a mandate that BDB was charged in 2020 after the initial pandemic shock. She was committed to launching programs immediately to support both business liquidity and employment support, especially for people who are temporarily incapacitated. These two guarantee programs, which we at BDB implement through a partnership with commercial banks, continue to work. "