Unfavorable business climate for the fifth consecutive month in October was determined by the NSI managers surveyed

In October 2021, the overall business climate indicator decreased by 2.3 percentage points compared to the previous month of September. A more unfavorable business climate has been registered in industry, retail trade and the services sector, while in construction the indicator has remained at its level since September, according to the results of the traditional local business survey of the National Statistical Institute (NSI).

The general indicator for the economic situation has been constantly declining since June, after an increase of 12.4 points compared to April was previously reported for May. The balance for the last five months is as follows: for September the total indicator decreased by 2.4 points, for August (-2.3 points), for July (at the level of June), for June (-4.0 points).

The composite indicator "business climate in industry" decreased by 3.9 points as a result of more reserved assessments and expectations of industrial entrepreneurs for the business condition of enterprises. Their forecasts for both exports and production activity in the next three months are also more negative.

In October the average capacity utilization in industry remained at the level of July (74.2%). However, in view of the expected demand, there is a shortage of capacity in the coming months.

The main problems for business development continue to be the uncertain economic environment, labor shortages and insufficient demand from the country, and in the last month there has been an increase in their negative impact.

Compared to September, the share of managers who forecast sales prices in industry to increase in the next three months is increasing.

In October, the composite indicator "business climate in construction" retained its level from the previous month. The expectations of the construction entrepreneurs for the business condition of the enterprises in the next six months, as well as for their activity in the next three months are pessimistic. The latest survey also reports an increase in the number of customers with late payments.

The production schedule is provided with contracts for 5.6 months, with a decrease of 1.3 months compared to the assessment in July. At the same time, expectations for new orders in the next six months are less favorable.

The most serious difficulty for the activity of enterprises remains the uncertain economic environment. In the last month, there has been an increase in the negative impact of the factor "material prices", which displaces in third place the difficulties associated with labor shortages.

Regarding sales prices in construction, 32.7% of managers continue to expect them to rise in the next three months.

The composite indicator "business climate in retail trade" decreased by 1.4 percentage points, which is due to more moderate assessments and expectations of retailers for the business condition of enterprises. Their forecasts for sales volume and orders to suppliers in the next three months are also more reserved.

The uncertain economic environment, competition in the industry and insufficient demand continue to limit the development of business in the sector to the greatest extent, and their negative impact has increased in the last month.

Compared to the previous month, the share of retailers is growing, which expect sales prices in the sector to increase in the next three months.

In October, the composite indicator "business climate in the services sector" decreased by 2.1 percentage points as a result of slightly worsened assessments and expectations of managers about the business condition of enterprises. Their opinions on current and expected demand for services are also more moderate.

The most serious difficulties for the activity remain related to the uncertain economic environment and the competition in the branch, indicated by 51.1 and 28.9% of the enterprises, respectively.

Managers' expectations regarding sales prices over the next three months continue to increase.