Parallel Tabulations: Ruling GERB Wins European Elections by Landslide

Parallel vote tabulations give the ruling GERB party a landslide victory in the European elections on Sunday and three or four more parties will have seats. Following are preliminary results of the elections, based on 100 per cent parallel vote tabulations carried out by sociological agencies and the tentative allocation of Bulgaria's 17 MEP seats:

Alpha Research:
GERB: 31.6 per cent, 7 seats
BSP for Bulgaria: 24.2 per cent, 5 seats
Movement for Rights and Freedoms (MRF): 15.8 per cent, 3 seats
VMRO-Bulgarian National Movement: 7.1 per cent, 2 seats

Gallup International Balkan:
GERB: 29.8 per cent, 6 seats
BSP for Bulgaria: 24.2 per cent, 5 seats
MRF: 16.9 per cent, 3 seats
VMRO-Bulgarian National Movement: 7.8 per cent, 2 seats
Democratic Bulgaria: 6.3 per cent, 1 seat

According to 100 per cent vote tabulations, the contestants below do not reach the 5.88 threshold for the allocation of seats:

Democratic Bulgaria: 5.7 per cent (Alpha Research)
Volya-The Bulgarian Patriots: 3.5 per cent (Alpha Research), 3.3 per cent (Gallup International)
Patriots for Valeri Simeonov: 1.1 per cent (Alpha Research), 1.1 per cent (Gallup International)
Coalition for Bulgaria: 1.0 per cent (Alpha Research), 0.9 per cent (Gallup International)
Ataka: 1.1 per cent (Alpha Research), 1.0 per cent (Gallup International)
Vazrazhdane: 1.0 (Gallup International)

Independent candidate Dessislava Ivancheva garnered 1.7 per cent according to Alpha Research and 1.8 per cent according to Gallup. A former mayor of a Sofia borough, Ivancheva was recently sentenced to 20 years in prison for bribery after a controversial trial.

According to Alpha Research, GERB leads in the urban centres, while Democratic Bulgaria is the third largest contestant in Sofia, and BSP for Bulgaria is the strongest in the rural areas, on a par with the MRF.

Political scientist Roumyana Kolarova commented that if the elections were held later, GERB's lead would have been even larger. She argued that the pro-European parties have won the elections.

"If it turns out that some 2 million voters went to the polls, GERB have lost some 70,000 votes compared to the previous European elections in 2014, BSP have added to their electoral support, and the votes for the MRF are also fewer," said political scientist Antonii Todorov.

Sociologist and political scientist Antonii Gulubov commented that there were anti-European overtones in the campaign and it contained outright lies, like the BSP's message misleading people that they will get a uniform EU wage that will equalize their income to those in the countries with high living standards.

"Our Socialists made a mistake of taking a stand against the Party of European Socialists and, instead of using [PES President] Sergei Stanishev as a spearhead, they fell out. The BSP spoke about Europe in three different ways," Ivaylo Dichev pointed out for his part.

Sociologist Boryana Dimitrova of Alpha Research: "Moods in the country do not favour early [parliamentary] elections. Neither the MRF are sufficiently strong, nor GERB is sufficiently weak to be unseated by the MRF. Regardless of GERB's showing, the Government is in for difficult times. Cabinet changes can be expected, too, because GERB will try to demonstrate a higher-degree control of the situation. A Cabinet shake-up is quite possible, considering the results of the now disunited Patriots. The Government needs a new re-legitimation in order to carry on. The situation in Parliament will by no means be comfortable." LN/LG

Source: BTA