Kaloyan Staykov: We have record electricity prices, because for 10 years there has been no strategic thinking about energy, especially for TPP "Maritsa East 2"
It is better for the cabinet to ask the parliament for permission to spend the additional revenues, instead of updating the budget, says the chief economist of the Institute for Energy Management
What is the reason for the peak electricity prices that were reached in our country?
They are due to the lack of a strategic vision for this sector. This is the most common reason. Energy in our country is traditionally dominated by producers within BEH, which form over 80% of free trade in electricity. And there is no way to look for a cause for the problems elsewhere. With such market concentration, it is obvious where the problem is.
The production costs of Kozloduy NPP and NEK's HPPs are low, which means that the problem comes from TPP Maritza East 2. It has been discussed for over 10 years. However, it was not a problem in 2013, because the economies as a whole stagnated, the prices of carbon allowances were low, and the plant received a large part of the allowances in the form of derogations, ie. were free for her. After that, however, quota prices began to rise, the possibility of this derogation - to decrease, most of the necessary quotas had to be bought and the company virtually went into technical bankruptcy. It is constantly accumulating losses and by the first nine months of 2020 already exceed BGN 1 billion. A solution to this problem has not been found and in the end this year TPP "Maritsa East 2" works with only two units - one for regulated and one for the free market.
And this at a time when on the one hand the industry is recovering, on the other hand there is a record high attendance at the resorts and overall record results in tourism, on the third - we have extremely high temperatures not only in our country but also in neighboring countries this raises electricity prices quite naturally. When our system is not ready for increased demand, we come to situations where supply simply cannot. And when we add to this various technical problems, namely scheduled repairs in the warmest months, things accumulate.
In fact, the problem in general is not that prices are rising. They grow everywhere. The problem is, firstly, that growth is very high and secondly, there is no predictability as to how prices will move. Ie one day we have the lowest price in the EU, the next - the highest. It is not normal. If the business knows that the price trend is increasing, it can forecast it, respectively predict the necessary costs and calculate them in the prices of its products. But, if he foresaw some prices when concluding contracts, but at one point it turns out that electricity is 2-3 times more as a cost, the bill does not come out.
How can such situations be avoided? Isn't the solution to the problem entirely in the hands of the state?
Absolutely, and the reason for it is the lack of strategic thinking is the main problem. We saw it in the Recovery and Sustainability Plan, before in the energy strategy, before in the National Integrated Energy and Climate Plan, in the reforms that were proposed for the electricity market. In general, it is not clear what is happening with this sector.
It is unclear whether there will be a new nuclear power plant, no matter where; it is not clear what the future of coal-fired power plants is; it is not clear whether part of their production will be gasified, if so - how much and when; It is clear that there will be growth in RES, but it is not clear how much, when, at what prices, etc. At the same time, and against the background of the whole focus on the transformation of this sector and bringing consumers to the forefront, no attention is paid to the development of networks. At some point it will turn out that a lot of investment is needed for a short period, this will increase the regulated prices for network services and we will again be surprised, as every year we are surprised that it is snowing.